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The time has finally come for our final betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 106 as we take a look at this headlining bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 8-ranked Gilbert Burns of Brazil will welcome No. 12-ranked Michael Morales of Ecuador. Check the UFC odds series for our Burns-Morales prediction and pick.
Gilbert Burns (22-8) has gone 15-8 since arriving to the UFC in 2014. He's been one of the best and most consistent fighters in the Welterweight Division for a number of years, but he's lost three consecutive fights heading into this one, where he'll be the biggest betting underdog of his career. Burns stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach.
Michael Morales (17-0) has gone a perfect 5-0 since entering the promotion in 2022. He's faced increasingly difficult competition up to this point, including recent wins over Jake Matthews and Neil Magny. He'll look for his toughest win yet against a legend of the sport. Morales stands 6 feet tall with a 79-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 106 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 106 Odds: Gilbert Burns-Michael Morales Odds
Gilbert Burns: +575
Michael Morales: -850
Over 3.5 rounds: -105
Under 3.5 rounds: -125
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Why Gilbert Burns Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Sean Brady – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Gilbert Burns is riding the longest losing streak of his professional career, and given his +575 betting odds in this fight, oddsmakers are already questioning how much he has left in the tank.
His losses are nothing to scoff at, however, as he's dropped to Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady, who have all fought for or defending the belt in the last year. If he's able to show even a sliver of his old self, we should be in for another surprising showing from Gilbert Burns.
The betting odds here are reminiscent of when Burns was +400 against Khamzat Chimaev and absolutely stunned everyone with his ability to go shot-for-shot with one of the best. Burns is one of the best in his own right, and his supreme toughness is capable of being pinned up against anyone on the roster.
Gilbert Burns' striking has improved incrementally throughout his time with the UFC, and we should see another strong showing from his hands in this one. However, his greatest advantage lies in the grappling, and if he can be the first to confidently take down Morales, his chances at finishing this fight with a submission rise immediately.
Why Michael Morales Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Neil Magny – TKO (ground-and-pound, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 12 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Michael Morales has been just about perfect through this point of his UFC tenure, and much like the passing of torches recently with undefeated prospects like Natalia Silva, this could be another situation where a veteran of the division passes the torch to the young, up-and-coming contender.
Michael Morales has all the tools to one day become a UFC champion, and his road starts on Saturday by trying to beat one of the best.
Morales will be working with a huge 8-inch reach advantage as he's used every bit of it in previous fights. His ability to stick his jab out front and deter opponents from closing the distance will be his greatest advantage throughout this fight.
He certainly favors a stand-up striking game where he can work his kicks up the middle, while his 92% takedown defense will ensure he dictates where this fight takes place.
Ultimately, if Morales can remain as sharp as he has been while still giving Burns the respect he deserves in the grappling, he should be able to come out on top with a strong decision victory.
Final Gilbert Burns-Michael Morales Prediction & Pick
This could be the highest level fight of the night as the UFC veteran Gilbert Burns will look to defend his standing against a hungry up-and-comer in Michael Morales. Morales is the massive betting favorite for good reason, but Gilbert Burns has outperformed his odds in the past, and we all know what a dog he is on fight day.
Still, Michael Morales is much faster than Burns in the striking, and expect to see that early on in this fight. Burns' success will massively hinge on whether he can find the takedown, but it'll be tough behind Morales' 92% defense. We've also seen Burns rock opponents with wild swinging hooks from in close, so it'll be interesting to see if he can catch Morales with a few during this one.
Ultimately, Michael Morales should win this fight via a close decision. However, they're giving Gilbert Burns way too much value on his betting line for us to not take a chance. His submission ability is the great equalizer, and for +575 odds, we'll take that chance all day.
Final Gilbert Burns-Michael Morales Prediction & Pick: Gilbert Burns (+575)
