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Jake Paul (11-1) returns to center stage for the first time in 2025 when he takes on former champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (54-6-1, one no-contest). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Jake Paul-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. prediction and pick.
Paul, 28, is coming off his massive win over Mike Tyson in one of the biggest events in boxing history. The win extended his win streak to five over two years. With a win over Chavez, Paul would tie his career-best with six consecutive victories.
Chavez, 39, is fighting for just the second time in the last three years, both under Paul's Most Valuable Promotions banner. The former middleweight champion is coming off a convincing win over retired MMA fighter Uriah Hall in his last bout, which occurred on the undercard of Paul's fight with Mike Perry. The win was Chavez's second straight victory, giving him his first win streak since 2016.
Here are the Jake Paul-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Jake Paul-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Odds
Jake Paul: -700
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr: +450
Over 9.5 Rounds: -165
Under 9.5 Rounds: +105
How to Watch Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT
TV/Stream:
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Why Jake Paul Will Win
As usual, Paul will be the much younger, bigger and more athletic fighter in this matchup. The 39-year-old Chavez will only be fighting at cruiserweight for the second time in his career after debuting at 200 pounds in his last fight with Hall. That matchup was clearly made to set up Paul's future opponent, with Hall entering the fight as a 1-0 professional boxer.
Despite Chavez's much-needed win over Hall, he looked every bit of his age in that fight and a complete shell of himself. The cardio held up, but Chavez never strung together more than two punches, and benefited from Hall trying to set a record for fewest punches thrown in a fight. Chavez is a pure point fighter at this stage of his career, which is not how to beat Paul.
To this point, the only fighter to beat Paul, Tommy Fury, could match his physicality and outpace him down the stretch. A 39-year-old Chavez is not much of a power threat and threw nothing other than jabs and hooks at a Hall while he clearly attempted to shake off some ring rust. He has taken another year off since and will be fighting for 10 rounds instead of the six he did with Hall.
Why Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Will Win
Chavez is old, but he is not Mike Tyson old, which makes him the most legitimate opponent of Paul's career to date. Chavez has shared the ring with some of the best fighters in the world, including Canelo Alvarez, Sergio Martinez, Andy Lee, and many others. When it comes to experience, there is nothing Paul can throw at him that he has not seen before.
While Chavez has a 63 percent knockout rate, he has never been known for his power. Instead, his relentless pace and pressure typically got the job done, backed by his tight guard and imposing durability. Paul's career is built on his power and ability to melt opponents, a style Chavez has typically fared well against.
Whenever Paul cannot get his opponents out early, he tends to fade late. Nate Diaz and Mike Perry had success against him in later rounds after Paul's cardio betrayed him. If Chavez can avoid the big shots early, he can implement the same game plan, which he has historically been successful at doing. Should Paul give Chavez too much respect, like he did with Tyson, it might be a much longer and tougher night than he anticipated.
Final Jake Paul-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Prediction & Pick
Most Valuable Promotions will bill this fight as a bout between Paul and a former champion to legitimize the latter's career, while leaving out the fact that Chavez has not held a world title in nearly 15 years. As Paul continues to improve — he is only now reaching his athletic prime — Chavez looks worse with each outing as he nears 40.
Chavez has never been the fastest puncher, but he will be at a definitive speed advantage against Paul. Many prepare for Paul's size and power, but underestimate his speed, which has been how he dismantled several recent opponents. It is never ideal to compare opponents, but Chavez's last loss to Anderson Silva was an eye-opening statement on where he is in his career. Fourteen months later, Paul made a bigger statement by outpointing Silva across eight rounds.
Coming off the controversial win over Tyson, Paul is well aware of how fans feel about his career. Carrying a senior citizen to an eight-round decision benefited his bank account more than his public perception, which is where he will now turn his focus. Paul has the advantage in almost every facet of this fight and will look to collect the name of a former champion on his resume in dominant fashion.
Final Jake Paul-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Prediction & Pick: Jake Paul by KO/TKO (+155), Over 0.5 Knockdowns (-155)
