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Arsenal opens up their quarterfinals of the Champions League as they face Real Madrid. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with an Arsenal-Real Madrid prediction and pick.
Arsenal got to this round after receiving a bye into the second round of the knockout stage. They would go through the league stage sitting at 6-1-1, earning their ye. Then, in the round of 16, they would face PSV. Arsenal dominate the first game with PSV, winning 7-1. This would allow them to coast in the second game, coming away with a 2-2 draw, but a 9-3 aggregate victory.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid was 5-0-3 in league play, which required them to play in the round of 32. There, they would face Manchester City, and come away with a 6-3 victory in the aggregate. This led to a date with La Liga rivals Atletico Madrid. They won the first leg 2-1, but Atletico would win the second leg 1-0. This would lead to extra time and then PKs. There, Real Madrid won in PKs 4-2.
These two faced off in the round of 15 of the 2005-06 Champions League. Arsenal won the first leg 1-0, and the second would be a 0-0 draw, leading to Arsenal advancing.
Here are the Arsenal-Real Madrid Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Arsenal-Real Madrid Odds
Arsenal: +135
Real Madrid: +200
Draw: +230
Over 2.5 goals: +132
Under 2.5 goals: -162
How to Watch Arsenal vs. Real Madrid
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount +
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Why Arsenal Will Win
Arsenal is scoring well overall. In 46 fixtures this year, they have scored 92 goals, good for two goals per game. Further, they have scored in 37 of 46 fixtures this year. Arsenal has continued to score well in UCL play. They have scored in eight of ten fixtures, and scored 25 total goals in the process. That's good for 2.50 goals per game in UCL play. They have also scored in all five home games so far, scoring 11 goals in the process. That is good for 2.2 goals per game.
Arsenal is led by Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz. Saka has scored four goals with two assists in UCL play. In Premier League play, he has six goals and ten assists this year. Havertz has scored four times on an expected 2.6 goals in UCL play. In the Premier League, he has nine goals and three assists. Finally, Gabriel Martinelli has six goals and four assists in Premier League play but has just one goal and one assist in UCL play.
The Arsenal defense has been dominant overall. They have allowed just 39 goals across their 46 fixtures this year, good for just 0.85 goals per game. Further, they have allowed just six goals in ten games in UCL play with five clean sheets. Arsenal has four clean sheets at home in UCL play, with the lone miss being in that last game with PSV when they were all but assured to advance being up 7-1 on aggregate.
Why Real Madrid Will Win
Real Madrid has scored well this year. They have scored in 43 of 48 total fixtures, scoring 109 goals in the process. That is good for 2.27 goals per game this year. In UCL play, they have scored in nine of 12 fixtures and scored 28 goals in the process. That is good for 2.33 goals per game in UCL play. They have not been as good on the road in UCL play. Real Madrid has scored in just three of their six road fixtures, but have scored nine goals in those six road games, good for 1.5 goals per game on the road this year.
Kylian Mbappe has led the way for Real Madrid. He has 22 goals with three assists in La Liga play while also scoring seven goals with an assist in UCL play. Vinicius Junior has also been great in UCL play. He has seven goals and two assists on an expected 5.8 goals so far. He has been solid in La Liga play as well, with ten goals and five assists.
Real Madrid has conceded 59 goals over their 48 total fixtures this year, good for 1.23 goals against per game overall. Real Madrid has conceded a fair amount of goals so far in UCL play. They have conceded 17 goals in their 12 fixtures. Still, they have been slightly better on the road. Real Madrid has allowed eight goals in their six road fixtures in UCL play. They also have a clean sheet on the road this year.
Final Arsenal-Real Madrid Prediction & Pick
Arsenal has been the better team in UCL play, but more importantly, they have been much better on defense. Their home defense has been nearly perfect, and while Real Madrid has been solid in scoring on the road, the defense has not been there. Take Arsenal in this one.
Final Arsenal-Real Madrid Prediction & Pick: Arsenal ML
