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Iga Swiatek takes on Liudmila Samsonova. Our U.S. Open odds series has our Swiatek Samsonova prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Swiatek Samsonova.
Iga Swiatek is the No. 1 women's tennis player in the world, but that doesn't mean she is the favorite to win this U.S. Open. Aryna Sabalenka entered her Sunday night match as the favorite. Whether she lives up to that status is a separate matter. However, while Swiatek has the upper hand against Sabalenka on clay, Sabalenka has recently been the better player at hardcourt major tournaments. Why is this the case? Sabalenka and other players who have tremendous power from the baseline can knock Swiatek off balance. Swiatek has had problems dealing with power and pace from her opponent. A fast or medium-fast hardcourt sends the ball toward Swiatek more quickly than she would like; that's the big difference between hardcourt and clay. Swiatek doesn't have as much time and can rush her shots, which erodes her accuracy and consistency. Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko, among others, have given Swiatek problems because of their big hitting. This is why Sabalenka, the best big hitter in women's tennis today (Naomi Osaka was the best several years ago when she collected four hardcourt major titles), is the U.S. Open favorite.
Swiatek's opponent in the fourth round, Liudmila Samsonova, is a big hitter. Samsonova has the style of play to bother Swiatek. However, one key nuance is that Sabalenka and others have established a higher level of consistency as pros. Samsonova is the No. 16 seed. She is not a top-10 player, a few notches below that standard. Hitting big matters, but the best players do it against the best opponents. This is where Samsonova remains unproven. It's a huge challenge for her, but also an immense opportunity.
Here are the Swiatek-Samsonova U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Iga Swiatek-Liudmila Samsonova
Game Spread:
Swiatek -5.5: -130
Samsonova +5.5: -102
Moneyline:
Swiatek: -880
Samsonova: +580
To Win First Set:
Swiatek: -550
Samsonova: +370
Total Games In Match:
Over 19.5: -110
Under 19.5: -122
Total Games Won:
Swiatek over 12.5: +114
Swiatek under 12.5: -152
Samsonova over 7.5: -102
Samsonova under 7.5: -132
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Iga Swiatek Will Win
Samsonova's lack of elite consistency on the biggest stages in tennis might get in her way. Samsonova has never gone past the fourth round of a major. This is the fourth round of a major. Samsonova getting nervous could be all that Swiatek needs to take control of this match and remain in control. Samsonova will need to hit a lot of winners, not just a few, to really get a foothold. If Swiatek gets off to a 3-0 or 4-1 start in the first set, it's hard to think that Samsonova will be able to change the flow of the match. Samsonova is probably dependent on a fast start. If she doesn't get it, she is unlikely to fight back. That gives anyone thinking about picking Swiatek more to like and more reason to bet on the World No. 1.
Why Liudmila Samsonova Will Win
We said it plainly above: Big hitters can bother Swiatek. If Samsonova can play relaxed, calm tennis and focus on hitting the ball, she can cover the spread. Tennis is like golf in that while a player is competing with others, the task is less about physically dominating another person in a contact sport (basketball, football, hockey) and more about hitting the ball. Good tennis players teach themselves to focus on the ball and block out the personal aspects of a competition. Clarity and technique reign supreme. If Samsonova can play a mentally strong match, she has a great chance of covering.
Final Iga Swiatek-Liudmila Samsonova Prediction & Pick
It's really hard to tell if Samsonova is ready for this match. We advise staying away from this match.
Final Iga Swiatek-Liudmila Samsonova Prediction & Pick: Samsonova +5.5 games
